China's Solar Cell Industry: A Sunny Forecast?
CCID Consulting, China's leading research, consulting and IT outsourcing service provider, and the first Chinese consulting firm listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, recently released its findings in an article on China's solar cell industry. It is expected that 2009 will bring increased demands for renewable, clean and secure energies. This coupled with innovations in thin film techniques and falling costs will probably cause China’s solar industry to undergo a restructuring period in its industry chain. It is also expected that a new application of thin film solar cell will appear.
Despite a definite lagging under China’s current economic environment, the solar industry remains a viable magnet for investors and manufacturers. The output for 2008 is expected to break through 2000MW. Compared to last year, this figure represents a rapid pace of development.
Thin film solar cell technology is considered to be most suitable for large-scale industrialization and it is likely that in the next few years technical progress and the improvement of the conversion rate will gradually highlight the cost advantage of the thin film solar cell. There has been a definite shift among the nation’s major manufacturers who are investing more and more in thin film. This is true despite its inability to completely replace crystalline silicon technology. Its market share is still expected to increase rapidly because of its cost advantage.
China's solar cell industry will still need to rely heavily on silicon raw materials and terminal market. More than 90% of polysilicon, the main raw material of solar battery, depends on import, and more than 90% terminal products rely on export. Solar battery products will be more popular, coinciding well with environment protection and energy saving policies.
Are the predictions of the CID Consulting Co sure to come true? While no one can say for sure, I would bet on their odds, as they seem to have an in with the solar powers that be.
M Dee Dubroff